A Fact-based Analysis of Bail Reform by Mike Green

Mike Green is currently a visiting professor at RIT. He previously spent 35 years as a prosecutor and 10 years leading the State Division of Criminal Justice Services. On December 6, 2022, Mr. Green presented his fact-based views on gun violence, bail reform and the dangerousness standard to UCLM’s Community Police Relations Committee. Below are key points from his presentation.

History of Bail Reform

·      NYS Bail Reform law originally passed in 2019. It limited a judges’ ability to hold an accused person for many non-violent felonies and misdemeanors.

·      The law was amended in 2020, among other changes it increased the number of violent felonies that judges can set bail on.

·      It was again amended in May 2022, allowing judges to consider the accused’s history of gun use and offenses when considering bail. This addition to the law functions like a dangerousness standard.

Crime Rate & Dangerousness Standard

·      The public’s impression is the crime rate is going up.

·      When looking at index crimes (Murder, Aggravated Assault, MV Theft, Rape, Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, Arson) as a group in New York State in 2019, these crimes at their lowest rate with 336,996/12 mos.

·      There was a 2% increase in 2020 to 343,861, then a slight decrease to 343,357 in 2021 (the 2020 figures represent a 24% decrease in crime in NYS since 2012.)

·      Looking at Monroe County Index Crimes: 2017 - 19,000; 2019 - 16,523; 2020 - 16,088; 2021 - 14,726 (https:// www.criminaljustice.ny.gov/crimnet/ojsa/ stats.htm). The overall crime rate has fallen since the start of bail reform, as well as prior to the 5/22 amendment allowing for the consideration of the accused’s gun history.

·      It must be noted that the 1st 3 index crimes (Murder, Aggravated Assault, MV Theft) increased in Monroe County, but this is not a NYS phenomenon. These increased across the U.S. along with shootings and gun related crimes even in states without Bail Reform.

Monroe County’s Homicides by Year

Year # of Homicides

2017 26

2018 25

2019 32

2020 51

2021 81

2022 68 (does not include the full year)

·      In 2017, 2018, 2019, judges were not allowed to consider the dangerousness of a person - and the numbers are still going up in spite of the 5/22 amendment allowing judges to consider a defendant’s history of gun offenses. It must also be noted that NYS as a whole had a drop in homicides from a high of 2600/year in 1990 to under 600/year in 2017, 2018, 2019 - this was obviously before any dangerousness standards were implemented.

·      Critical to note: There has been no analysis showing that bail reform is driving the spike in gun violence. An analysis by Albany Times Union suggests that few people released under the new Bail Reform law were then rearrested for serious offenses.

Stricter Gun Laws

·      Prior to 2006, possession of a loaded weapon in NYS was a Class D Felony with a possible 1-year sentence. This was amended in 2006 to a Class C Felony with a mandatory minimum 3 ½ years in State Prison. Violent gun crimes have been increasing in spite of stricter sentences.

Racial Disparities

·      In Monroe County approximately 14% of the residents are black, yet they comprise 53% of all adult arrests, 59% of felony arrests and 71% of those sent to prison.(See 2020 Population Arrests Prison by Race.pdf (ny.gov). Implementation of a dangerousness standard will further increase this racial disparity. The Albany Times Union reports that NYS Bail Reform has prevented approximately 80,000 unnecessary pretrial incarcerations - many of them of black or Hispanic people.

Other contributing factors to crime increases:

a.    Increase in Gun Sales: In 2021the U.S. had the highest number of gun sales ever. In Monroe County - a certain % of these sales were illegal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ joewalsh/2022/01/05/us-bought-almost-20- million-guns-last-year---second-highest- year-on-record/?sh=7b245adb13bb

b.   COVID: In 2020-2021the court systems in NYS had a major shut down which resulted in decreased numbers of people going to prison. Also, police in general had major staffing shortages due to COVID.

c.    Decrease in arrests: NYS arrests fell from 357,000 in 2019 to about 257,000 in 2020 , a 39% decrease. Monroe County has also seen its share of decreasing arrests: https://www.criminaljustice.ny.gov/crimnet/ojsa/ arrests/index.htm

d.   Decrease in Community Support Programs: Anti-violence programs like Violence Interrupters were greatly decreased due to COVID.

e.    George Floyd: This led to widespread mistrust in the police and our justice system. There is a link between this distrust and increased levels of violence and crime.

Questions for Mike Green:

Are there specific policy changes he recommends?

All of the solutions require resources, which communities may hot have. Examples are programs in Utica and Newburgh. They have dedicated police units to investigate non-fatal shootings. 70% of non-fatal shootings are not solved - but with these units, the clearance rate has doubled.

Where can crime data be obtained?

https://www.criminaljustice.ny.gov/crimnet/ojsa/stats.htm

Age range for the accused in gun crimes:

Mike Green does not have this data – one challenge in answering this question is that 70 to 80% of the shootings are not solved and therefore the age of the accused is not known. The average age of Rochester homicide victims is 29.

How many gun offenders who were arrested and jailed agreed to plea bargains?

Over 90% of dispositions here are pleas.

 Mike Green’s white paper entitled Gun Violence and Bail Reform – Correlation or Causation? Are Changes to New York's bail statutes the solution to our gun violence issues?